Clive Furness (with Laila Cunningham, Nigel Farage and Sir Robin Wales on the far right)
Reform’s mayoral candidate. A man who looks a bit like Clive Furness, but younger, thinner and with much darker hair.
Are they related?
Journey’s End
4 Mar
Robin Wales and Clive Furness with Nigel Farage (picture via London Evening Standard)
Well, it was bound to happen sooner or later. Sir Robin Wales and his long-time ally and fellow Blue Labour acolyte Clive Furness have defected to Reform UK.
Wales will be joining as ‘Director of Local Government Development’ and Furness will be the party’s candidate for Mayor of Newham.
Both men have long promoted a politics well to the right of mainstream Labour opinion and their recent piece in Spiked about why they left the Labour Party was merely a trailer for this announcement.
This blog was largely founded as a way for me to express my disgust and amazement that Wales, a man who so clearly possessed no Labour values whatsoever, was in any kind of leadership position at all, much less the all-powerful and unchallengeable directly elected mayor. And it turns out, in the end, I was absolutely right.
Those currently running what remains of the Labour Party in Newham – hollowed out by five long years of suspension – should have a long hard think about their decision to turn their backs on the last eight years and embrace the politics of the previous 20.
Wales and Furness have gone. Good riddance. Their politics should go with them.
Update: Wales’ new title at Reform is Director of Local Government Development, not Director of London Local Government as I previously had it. Apologies.
The East End ‘Eton’: A Social Mobility Miracle, or a Mirage?
23 Feb
Alex Crossman, head of LAE, with some students (from his Substack)
A recent feature in The Times Magazine (paywall) painted a glowing portrait of the London Academy of Excellence (LAE), a state-funded sixth-form college in Stratford, East London. This year, 62 of its 247 Year 13 students received offers from Oxford or Cambridge — a ratio that rivals the most exclusive private schools in Britain. The school’s head, Alex Crossman, was given generous space to make his case: that LAE proves disadvantaged young people can compete at the very highest level when given the right environment. On the surface, it is a compelling story and one that our local MP has bought into. But it is also one worth examining rather more closely.
More than an exam factory?
Crossman is predictably keen to distance the school from the “academic boot camp” label often attached to the school. He points to extracurricular activities, elective programmes, and a teaching staff of whom more than a third hold PhDs. In a Substack post written in direct response to the Times coverage, he insists the school is not “unashamedly selective” but “unashamedly specialist.” He also highlights an admissions practice that rarely makes the headlines: students eligible for free school meals are prioritised, and around 40 percent of the intake in recent years has been admitted ahead of applicants with better grades but richer parents.
These are genuine points. But they sit alongside a rather more awkward history. Earlier reporting raised concerns that LAE had been removing students mid-course who failed to meet the required academic threshold — effectively managing its results by shedding those least likely to succeed. Critics argued this placed an unfair burden on nearby comprehensive sixth forms, most obviously Newham Sixth Form College (NewVIC), which were left to absorb ex-LAE students on considerably tighter funding. The charge was not that the school was running a boot camp, but something potentially more troubling: that its impressive numbers were partly a product of careful curation. One critic stated “LAE should not be applauded for rigging their success.”
Eddie Playfair, at the time principal of NewVIC, argued that “academic selective system at 16 is now emerging” in London, “and that means you get social sorting happening at the same time, and I think that is probably bad for social mobility.”
The selection question
Crossman’s response to selection critiques is that all A-level provision is selective — every course requires minimum GCSE grades — and that LAE simply selects with social purpose. This is true as far as it goes. But it sidesteps the more pointed question about what happens to the students who don’t make the cut, either at entry or during Year 12. The school’s entry requirement of grade 7 or above in eight GCSEs places it firmly at the top end of the selective spectrum, drawing from a pool of the highest-achieving 16-year-olds in the country. The free school meals priority is a meaningful corrective, but it does not change the fundamental character of the institution: a highly selective school that takes the best-prepared students and gives them an intensive, well-resourced education. That this produces good results is not, in itself, surprising. And neither is the knock-on effect of relatively weaker overall results in neighbouring institutions, who are then criticised for not doing as well.
Where do the students actually come from?
The geographic picture complicates the narrative further. LAE presents itself as rooted in Newham, one of London’s most deprived boroughs, yet the Times piece acknowledges – almost in passing – that many pupils commute in from Essex or from other parts of London. With Stratford now a major hub on the Elizabeth line, the school is easily accessible from a very wide catchment area. Its admissions policy reserves half its places for Newham residents — but that still leaves significant room for students travelling in from considerably more prosperous areas. Research into similar “super-selective” 16-19 free schools has consistently found patterns of recruitment well beyond the notional home borough, drawing ambitious, well-prepared students from a much wider pool than the local community framing suggests.
A model to be replicated — or a cautionary tale?
The Times argues the LAE model should be rolled out nationally. But even setting aside the political obstacles — the current government rightly suspended the Tories’ ‘Free Schools’ programme in late 2024 — the systemic questions would remain unanswered. A school that skims the most academically able students from across a wide urban area, concentrates them in a well-funded specialist institution, and then presents the results as evidence of social mobility may be telling a story that is true for the individuals involved but deeply misleading about the system as a whole.
Indeed, the school’s existence may actually harm social mobility by concentrating the most able students away from their local comprehensive sixth forms. A point supposedly progressive politicians should bear in mind.
How a new voting system could end Labour’s grip on Newham
2 Feb
Uma Kumaran MP on Instagram
For decades, Newham has been synonymous with Labour dominance. The borough has consistently delivered some of the party’s strongest results anywhere in the country. But as we approach the May 2026 mayoral election, a perfect storm of a changed electoral system and political upheaval threatens to end that era.
The System That Protected Labour (though it rarely needed it)
Until now, Newham’s mayoral elections used the Supplementary Vote system, where voters could express both first and second preferences. If no candidate secured over 50%, second choices were redistributed between the top two. In practice, this rarely mattered — Labour won outright on first preferences in five of six elections. Only in 2006, when George Galloway’s Respect Party mounted a strong challenge, did Labour need second preferences to win.
Had the Tories not abolished this system in 2022 it would have provided Labour with a crucial safety net this year. Progressive voters could have backed the Greens or another party as their first choice, knowing they could return to Labour via second preferences. Even with Labour’s support weakened by the unpopularity of the Starmer government, the party would likely have benefited from transfers from other progressive voters keen to keep less appealing alternatives out.
That buffer has for the time being disappeared. Despite introducing legislation to reinstate the supplementary vote, parliament has not yet passed it into law, so the 2026 election will use First Past the Post. One vote, winner takes all, regardless of whether they achieve a majority.
Historical Strength, Meet Historic Weakness
To understand how extraordinary the current situation is, consider the numbers. In 2018, Rokhsana Fiaz won with a commanding 73.4%. Even in 2022, when her support dropped significantly, she still secured 56.2%.
Historically, Newham Labour’s candidates have outperformed national polling by 25-40 percentage points. For example, when the party polled 29% nationally in 2010, their mayoral candidate won 68% locally. Newham has always been a Labour bedrock.
Fast forward to January 2026, and Labour is polling at a catastrophic 17-22% nationally — the party’s worst position since monthly polling began in 1983. Even with the usual level of out-performance versus the national party, Newham Labour may struggle to hit even 40% this time.
And with the early messaging from Labour candidate Forhad Hussain suggesting he is running against the current mayor’s record rather than the Opposition, that is doubtful. “Labour’s made a mess of it, vote Labour” is s hard message to sell.
The Challengers Emerge
Given the polls and the change to the voting system, this election is genuinely competitive.
The Newham Independents’ candidate, Councillor Mehmood Mirza, represents the largest opposition group on the council with four seats (or is it five?). His populist platform — council tax freezes, free parking, public events, even more free parking, and free sports gear for every child — taps into dissatisfaction over street cleaning, parking charges, and council governance, as well as anger over Labour’s stance on Gaza. Whether his ambitious spending promises can be delivered within a balanced budget is questionable, but the appeal is undeniable. Promises cost nothing, and by the time voters find out he can’t actually deliver them, it’s too late.
The Green candidate, Councillor Areeq Chowdhury, defected from Labour in 2024. His candidacy provides a direct bridge for disillusioned Labour supporters into another progressive option. The Greens already hold the Stratford Olympic Park ward and are targeting council seats in Stratford, Forest Gate and the Royal Docks. They came second with 17.4% in the July 2024 general election in Stratford & Bow, demonstrating organised support across the borough’s younger and more affluent areas. His promise to “ensure we have a clean, green place to live in” will resonate with those voters.
The central structural problem for Labour is that they and their main challengers sit broadly within overlapping political spaces. They share concerns about housing quality, street cleaning, regeneration, and accountability. Despite his regressive policies on climate and tax, Mirza enjoys the endorsement of Jeremy Corbyn, while the Greens have also attracted support on the Left with positive messaging on migration and calls for a wealth tax.
If Chowdhury attracts environmentally-minded and younger voters, while Mirza consolidates anti-establishment and community-based support, Labour’s vote could be eroded from two directions at once.
Reform UK adds another layer of complexity. Newham is not an obvious Reform stronghold. It is younger, more ethnically diverse, and more urban than the areas where Reform has typically done best. Its core base — older, white, socially conservative voters — is relatively smaller here. But the party’s emphasis on social conservatism and cultural issues may resonate with some older and more religious voters who feel detached from Labour’s current direction. Without much in the way of local campaigning infrastructure they secured around 17% in the recent Plaistow South by-election. Reform doesn’t need to win to make a difference because it draws votes from multiple pools: disaffected Labour supporters, residual Conservatives, and general protest voters. Ten or twelve percent could reshape the contest by lowering the threshold for victory.
The Fragmentation Factor
Put these elements together, and the outcome is unprecedented fragmentation and a potentially knife-edge result. Something along these lines is entirely plausible:
- Labour: 32-40%
- Newham Independents: 25-33%
- Greens: 18-25%
- Reform: 10-15%
- Others: 5-10%
Labour might win with barely a third of the vote, meaning a large majority preferred someone else. Alternatively, if one challenger consolidates better or is more effective at turning out its vote, the party could lose out entirely.
The Irony of Simplification
Historically, Newham’s mayoral elections were about majorities – often big majorities. In 2026, they’ll be about pluralities. Labour’s dominance was built on strong first-preference support, reinforced by second preferences when needed. Under FPTP, only the first layer remains. Its proponents claim it’s a simpler system, easier to understand. Ironically, it could lead to a result that is more complicated and unpredictable.
For Labour, the task is clear but difficult: hold the vote together in an unfavourable national climate and prevent further defections. Their current strategy, focusing on parking and traffic management, is seriously puzzling. Why add salience to issues that Mirza is actively campaigning on and at the same time risk alienating younger and environmentally conscious voters, for whom the Greens are already an attractive option?
For the challengers, the dilemma is opposite. Each has a case against Labour, but collectively they risk canceling each other out. Fragmentation may hand Labour victory by default.
Whatever happens, 2026 will produce a mayor backed by fewer people than any of their predecessors. In a borough long accustomed to clear mandates, that would mark a profound shift in how local power is won — and how legitimate it feels. Labour may be about to learn a harsh lesson about the vagaries of first-past-the-post in an age of political volatility.
Even Nur Confusion
22 Jan
Mere days after posting on Facebook about being a ‘neutral independent council candidate’ Nur Begum (Little Ilford) has done another about-turn, claiming to still be a Labour councillor.
But fellow (and genuinely Labour) councillor Alan Griffiths was quick to correct her. ‘No’ being the entirety of his reply.
Newham Living Streets
21 Jan
Join us for the launch of Newham Living Streets!
We’re excited to invite residents, local organisations and everyone who cares about safer, greener, more welcoming streets to the official launch of Newham Living Streets! Come along to learn about this exciting new initiative aimed at making walking, wheeling and everyday life in our neighbourhoods healthier and more enjoyable.
Date: Thursday 29 January 2026
Time: 6:30 PM – 8:30 PM
Location: Canning Town Library, Rathbone Market, London E16 1EHBook via the link below:
Hear from inspiring speakers working in transport, public health and community action, discover how you can get involved, and meet others shaping the future of our streets together.
Let’s make Newham’s streets safer, greener and better for everyone — see you there!
#NewhamLivingStreets #LondonCommunity #ActiveTravel #HealthyStreets
Even more independent
12 Jan
Leaflet posted to Facebook by Little Ilford councillor Nur Begum
Little Ilford councillor Nur Begum only crossed the floor to the Newham Independents in November, but it looks like she’s already moving on.
In a post on her Facebook page she describes herself as a ‘Solo Independent Neutral Councillor Candidate’.
Her ‘six point plan’ to Make Newham Great Again (seriously, councillor?) is a combination of Newham Independent gripes – parking charges (twice!), freezing council tax, free bulky waste collection – and actual Labour achievements like free school meals.
She says
Labour has presided over years of decline in our borough
while failing to mention that she sat for the better part of four years as a Labour councillor.
She goes on
Unlike the big parties, I have only one priority: You. I will work tirelessly every single day to deliver the improvements that the Little Ilford deserves
Her defection to NIPs came after she failed to win re-election as a Labour candidate. Obviously I have no insight into why she was let go, but one might reasonably speculate that a failure to work tirelessly for her residents was a factor.
Candidates assemble!
7 JanThe three biggest parties in Newham politics have announced their candidates to replace Rokhsana Fiaz as mayor in May’s local elections.
Labour’s candidate will be Forhad Hussain. He, like all of the party’s candidates, he was selected by a special panel of the National Executive Committee. Hussain previously served as councillor for Plaistow North from 2010 to 2018 after standing unsuccessfully on the Respect ticket in 2006. He held a couple of positions in Robin Wales’ cabinet and chaired the audit committee. I’m not sure what he’s been doing politically for the past eight years, though as the local Labour parties have been suspended for five of them it’s perhaps not surprising his profile has been a bit low.
To absolutely no-one’s surprise the Newham Independents will be nominating Cllr Mehmood Mirza as their candidate. I’m afraid I couldn’t get a better picture as both Mirza and his party have blocked me from all their socials. Mirza has been councillor for Boleyn ward since winning a by-election a couple of years ago. He now leads a group of five councillors with, shall we say, diverse political histories (from Corbynites to Conservatives) but united by a sense of grievance with the Labour party and a penchant for owning multiple properties. Mirza was once a candidate for a seat on the party’s NEC and was vice-chair for membership of the West Ham constituency party before being suspended.
Newham’s Green party was the official opposition on the council before Mirza’s party turned up. Their two councillors elected in Olympic Park ward were later joined by Areeq Chowdhury after he defected from Labour. Cllr Chowdhury has represented Canning Town North since 2022, where he was a late addition to the slate after a previously selected candidate was dropped.
UPDATE 4 February 2026
According to Who Can I Vote For?, the Conservatives have nominated Terri Bloore as their candidate for mayor. A quick Google search tells me that Ms Bloore grew up in a rural Leicestershire before studying Public Relations at Bournemouth University and International Affairs at Kings College London. She now works in Corporate & Financial Services and has a particular interest in global sustainability and social impact. There is no announcement on either the East Ham or West Ham & Beckton Conservative Association websites, but a campaign Twitter account has been set up; it has not posted yet.
There is no word yet from the Liberal Democrats or Reform, but all are sure to put their hat in the ring. Maybe the Christian Peoples Alliance will have another go too. This post will be further updated as and when.
Saving lives
17 Dec
Will Norman addresses Newham councillors
Dr Will Norman, the mayor of London’s Walking and Cycling Commissioner, spoke to Newham council at their October meeting about the impact that policies to reduce traffic and improve air quality have had. This is the speech he gave, lightly edited to improve readability online*.
Thank you, Chair, and a massive thank you to the whole council for inviting me here the this evening. It’s a privilege to be here.
I’m going to start on a somber note. Last year, 110 people were killed on London streets through crashes and collisions. Over 3,500 people were seriously injured in the last three years. There have been 15 fatalities on Newham’s roads, and over 4,000 people have been hurt.
Now you, as councillors, will know the tragedy that that brings to people’s families, to their friends, to colleagues and to communities. These are violent, random deaths that bring misery to thousands of Londoners on an annual basis.
The good news is that those numbers are falling.
Last year was the lowest year on record outside the pandemic for fatalities and London’s number of collisions are falling four times faster than the national average. And I’m here today to say thank you to everybody in this room for playing your role. Your rollout of a 20 mph limit across the borough has had an incredible impact.
We’ve done some research now looking at the impact that council decisions have made on the on the lives of Londoners.
We saw a 40% fall in fatalities thanks to your policies.
We saw 34% fall in the number of people being seriously injured thanks to your 20 miles an hour policies.
Astonishingly, we saw a 75% fall in the number of kids being killed on London’s roads due to your 20 miles an hour policies.
And there’s a huge amount of evidence of the benefits that these are bringing. They are not having an impact on journey times. They’re having an impact on air quality. They are saving lives, due to all your hard work.
There are literally people walking around Newham today who wouldn’t have been, had it not been for the efforts of everybody in this chamber.
It’s not just the 20 miles an hour that’s having an impact. If you look at your fantastic healthy street schools programme, it’s another success.And I’d like to congratulate everybody in the room for their work on this too. 51 of your 127 schools have got us got a school streets program.
The evidence shows that you’ve seen a significant fall in the volume of traffic. The feedback from people within Newham means that it’s they feel safer and calmer to walk their school or their kids to school across the whole capital. Because of your hard work, we’ve beaten our target of 58% of kids to walk to school on a daily basis – which far exceeds the national targets – and it far exceeded our expectations. So we’ve had to set a new target because of all your good work.
But it’s not just that kids are safer going to school on their way to school and their way back. It’s having an impact in their schools.
I don’t know if any of you have ever seen a child have an asthma attack. It is genuinely terrifying seeing a small child struggling to breathe, to struggle to get air.Our air quality contributes to that on a daily basis. So we put air quality monitors inside some of the schools around London to look at the impact.
I’ll show you the benefits that your policies are having on children with these with the in these schools. The graph there shows that there is obviously an improvement in air quality at drop off time and pick up time. Now that would make sense, because that’s when the school streets in operation. But the genuine change that that graph shows is that air quality throughout the entire school day is better, not just a drop off time, not just a pick up time.
That means that every school, every kid in those 51 schools across Newham is breathing in cleaner air the whole time they are at school.
So again, thank you, that is also contributing to the change in air quality across London. That means fewer asthma attacks and all the problems associated with that across the city.
When we started this journey, I think we were told it would take 194 years to make London’s air legal. Can you believe that almost 200 years to make London’s air legal?
Collectively, thanks to the work in this of everyone in this room and at Transport for London and the mayor and all the other boroughs, we’ve done that in nine.
So thank you. You are saving lives on that. But it’s not just road safety, it’s not just air quality. The health benefits of the policies that you’re implementing are having an astonishing impact.
I was talking to Chris Whitty, the Chief Medical Officer for the UK, the other day. He said that active travel is having more of an impact than anything else on the outcomes and inequalities in health.
Last week, I was out with the Mayor and Councillor Morris to open the new bike lanes and transformation of the North Woolwich corridor. We heard from secondary school kids who were walking to school safely. We saw cyclists moving along there safely, and that is contributing to a huge boost in cycling across London.
You collectively in this room, are making kids healthier. You’re stopping those asthma attacks, you’re reducing heart disease, you’re reducing diabetes, you’re reducing cancer, you’re reducing depression, you are contributing to a healthier London, a healthier Newham, and everybody is benefiting from that.
So I remind you again, as a consequence of your hard work, there are people walking around this borough today, right now, this evening, who wouldn’t have been had it not been for the policies you’ve implemented. So I want to say, on behalf of the Mayor of London and on behalf of the residents of London, thank you.
Keep up the good work.
We’ll keep supporting you, but the impact that you are making is genuinely astonishing, and you should be proud of it.
The long and short of it is that policies that discourage unnecessary car journeys and encourage active travel SAVE LIVES. Better air quality means better health. Fewer cars on the road means fewer collisions, fewer injuries, fewer deaths.
In next year’s elections some candidates will stand on a platform of rolling these policies back. They will claim to be speaking for residents, for ‘the people’. But evidence shows that doing so – cancelling healthy school streets, rolling back people friendly streets, reverting to a 30 MPH speed limit – will cost lives. People who are walking around our borough today won’t be in a year or two if we step back into the past.
Please, think carefully before you vote.
- The actual speech can be seen online on the council’s YouTube channel.
So long, farewell
8 Dec
Mayor Fiaz will be among those departing after the elections in May
The panel tasked by Labour’s national executive to oversee the election of candidates for next May’s elections has completed its work. While we don’t yet have official confirmation of the successful applicants, there are a number of sitting councillors who will be leaving the Labour benches next year:
- Rokhsana Fiaz, Mayor of Newham since 2018; previously councillor for Custom House
Dr Rohit Dasgupta, councillor for Canning Town South since 2018; chair of council and First Citizen of Newham- Alan Griffiths, councillor for Canning Town South since 2014, previously represented Park, Forest Gate South and Plaistow North
- Charlene McLean, cabinet member for Resident Engagement & Resident Experience; councillor for West Ham since 2018, previously Stratford & New Town
Simon Rush, secretary of Labour Group; councillor for Plaistow West & Canning Town East since 2022- Amar Virdee, councillor for Green Street West since 2022
- Stephanie Garfield, councillor for Wall End since 2023
- Joshua Garfield, councillor for Stratford (previously Stratford & New Town) since 2018
- Jemima McAlmont, councillor for Wall End since 2022
- Mohammed Muzibar Rahman, councillor for Green St East since 2022
- Sarah Ruiz, Deputy Mayor & Cabinet Member for Children’s Services, Education & Sustainable Transport; councillor for Custom House since 2018, previously South, Beckton and Royal Docks
- Rita Chadha, Cabinet Member for Health & Adult Social Care and Transforming Newham for the Future; councillor for Canning Town North since 2022
- Anamul Islam, formerly Labour Group chief whip; councillor for Forest Gate South since 2022, previously Forest Gate North
- Dina Hossain, councillor for Plaistow West & Canning Town East since 2022
- Carleene Lee-Phakoe, councillor for Plaistow South since 2018
- Pushpa Makwana, councillor for Plashet since 2018
- Terry Paul, councillor for Stratford (previously Stratford and New Town) since 2010
- Winston Vaughan, councillor for Forest Gate South since 2002, previously New Town
- Dr John Whitworth, Cabinet Member for Air Quality, Climate Emergency & Environment; councillor for West Ham since 2014, and previously 2002 to 2006
- Nur Begum, councillor for Little Ilford since 2022, sitting as a Newham Independents Party councillor since learning of her deselection
Of course, there are four other councillors who were elected for Labour in 2022 who no longer have the whip. Belgica Guana (Canning Town South) and Lewis Godfrey (Green Street West) sit as ungrouped independents; Areeq Chowdhury (Canning Town North) is now with the Greens and Zuber Gulamussen (Plashet) is the chief whip for the Newham Independents.
Update: Simon Rush has been selected as a candidate in Custom House ward; Rohit Dasgupta has been reselected in Canning Town South.
forestgatedotnet 