Archive | May, 2014

Random election facts

25 May

2014 05 24 17 27 24

  • Largest number of votes cast (ward): Little Ilford
  • Highest turnout (ward): East Ham North – 51.97%
  • Lowest turnout (ward): Beckton – 31.8%
  • Highest personal vote: Farah Nazeer (Labour, Little Ilford) – 2,997
  • Lowest vote (all):  Moriamo Sadiq (Christian Peoples Alliance, East Ham North) – 68
  • Lowest vote for an elected candidate: Anthony McAlmont (Labour, Royal Docks) – 1,201
  • Highest vote for a losing candidate:  Ilyas Sharif (Conservative, East Ham North) – 1,547
  • Beckton had the closest contest, with just 680 votes in it
  • The Conservatives finished in second place in 16 wards; UKIP were runners-up in 3 wards – Canning Town North, Canning Town South and Custom House – while the Green party finished behind Labour in Forest Gate North

In 2010 Labour not only won all 60 seats but had the top 60 candidates ranked by personal vote: no losing candidate in one ward got more votes than a winning candidate in another. That’s not the case this time. The 60 most popular candidates includes 3 Tories – Ilyas Sharif (East Ham North), Ashfaq Ahmed (Green St East) and Durai Kannan (East Ham North). In fact 7 unsuccessful Conservatives polled more votes than Anthony McAlmont, Labour’s lowest ranking candidate.

Ultimately this is meaningless, as the election is fought across 20 wards with varying electorates and turnouts. But it does point to the underlying absurdity of our current electoral system.

Forest Gate results

25 May

2014 05 24 17 24 37

Forest Gate North’s new councillors

Forest Gate North

Candidate Party Votes
Ellie Robinson Labour 2324 Elected
Seyi Akiwowo Labour 2126 Elected
Rachel Tripp Labour 2120 Elected
Alan Charles Cooper Green 562
Jane Alison Lithgow Green 559
Shaeb Khan Conservative 548
Dawn Lennon Conservative 490
Brian Maze Conservative 480
Bob Severn TUSC 222
Christian Moon Liberal Democrat 206
Lynn Denise Donaldson Christian Peoples Alliance 174
Christina Doyle Christian Peoples Alliance 146

 

Forest Gate South

Candidate Party Votes
Masihullah Patel Labour 2209 Elected
Dianne Walls Labour 2095 Elected
Winston Vaughan Labour 2023 Elected
Mahboob Rizu Ahmed Conservative 993
Asif Choudhary Conservative 976
Tim Roll-Pickering Conservative 693
William Heron Liberal Democrat 293
Niall Mulholland TUSC 238
Dieutane Jean Parson Christian Peoples Alliance 179
Malcolm Williamson Christian Peoples Alliance 159
Ionel Vrancianu Independent 101

Four more years

23 May

Newham Labour M 004

Newham Labour is celebrating another four years for Sir Robin, despite a big drop in his personal vote compared to 2010.

The Conservatives’ Respect-a-like campaign brought them an extra 2% share, but at considerable cost to their credibility. Tory HQ is said to be investigating their candidate selections and election leaflets.

UKIP’s 3rd place is less alarming than it appears. They were a long, long way back and 6% of the vote is less than their London-wide average. Newham again proves it is blessedly resistant to the far right.

Jane Lithgow of the Greens will be as pleased with her 4% as Lois Austin will be disappointed with TUSC’s 2%.

It looks like the end of the road for the Christian Peoples Alliance. From 4th place to last and two-thirds of their vote vanished. They won’t be missed.

Talking of losers: the Liberal Democrats. Once upon a time they got people elected to the council; now they trail in 6th place with fewer votes than Kamran Malik.

Candidate Party 2014 2010 Change
Sir Robin Wales Labour 47,095 61.2% 64,748 68.0% -17,653 -6.8%
Stefan Mrozinski Conservative 13,976 18.2% 15,330 16.1% -1,354 2.1%
David Mears UKIP 4,960 6.4%
Jane Lithgow Green 3,055 4.0%
Kamran Malik Communities United 2,796 3.6% 6,607 6.9% -3,811 -3.3%
David Thorpe Liberal Democrat 1,757 2.3%
Lois Austin TUSC 1,708 2.2%
Alex Ocan Latim Christian PA  1,625 2.1% 6,503 6.8% -4,878 -4.7%
  Turnout 76,972 40.60% 95,194 50.40% -18,222 -9.8%

Newham Mag celebratory edition

22 May

Newham Mag fake

The council spin team has been hard at work preparing a special commemorative issue of the Newham Mag ahead of the joyous news.

Et tu, Kevin?

21 May

Defenestrated Labour councillor Kevin Jenkins provides some acid-tongued advice to residents unsure of who to vote for tomorrow. He suggests asking four questions about each of the candidates:

  1. Do they make specific pledges for your area alongside the general borough-wide pledges?
  2. How are they proposing to keep in touch with their electorate in the ward over the next four years or do you anticipate seeing them again in four years’ time when they want your vote again?
  3. Are they promising to have a regular surgery in the ward each week?
  4. Are they old political hacks or do they have a genuine conviction for your ward and the wider borough? Will they toe the mayor’s or a party line, or vote for what’s best for your area?

That doesn’t read to me like a clarion call to vote for his former colleagues.

Please vote

20 May

Bad politicians

Every year, in November, we are encouraged to remember the sacrifice made by those who fought and died to defend our freedom and our democracy.

This year there’s no need to wait until November.

There are three elections happening in Newham on Thursday and you have the right to vote in all of them. Going to the polling station and marking an X on a ballot is by far a more meaningful commemoration than wearing a poppy.

  • European parliament: You have one vote, which you can give to the party of your choice. It’s truly proportional, as London’s 8 seats are allocated in direct proportion to the number of votes each party gets: your vote really counts.
  • Mayor of Newham: You can vote for a first choice and a second choice. If no candidate gets 50% of the first choice votes the top 2 go into a run-off and the second choice votes of the eliminated candidates are counted. Those for the remaining candidates are added to their totals and the one with the most votes wins. Your second choice only counts if you happen to have given it to one of the top 2 candidates. It’s a stupid system, but we’re stuck with it for now.
  • Council: You have three votes. Despite what the big parties might prefer you to believe, you can split your votes any way you like. The three candidates with the most votes in your ward win and get to spend the next four years scrutinising the mayor and holding him (or her) to account. At least that’s the theory.

Please vote.

Idle speculation

20 May

Still grinning

An unofficial anti-Wales leaflet currently doing the rounds

Back in 2010 the electoral fates conspired to help Sir Robin Wales to a landslide victory in the mayoral election.

The election was held on the same day as the general election, boosting turnout to over 50%, and he was to all intents and purposes unopposed. The Tories barely campaigned at all, there was no Liberal Democrat and no Left candidate. The field was so pathetically thin that Kamran Malik came third.

The full results were:

Candidate Party Votes Share
Sir Robin Wales Labour 64,748 68.0%
Maria Joy Allen Conservative 15,330 16.1%
Kamran Malik KM Communities Welfare Party 6,607 7.0%
Alan Craig Christian Peoples Alliance 6,503 6.8%
Chikwe Nkemnacho Independent 2,006 2.1%

This time though Sir Robin faces a tougher test: all the main Westminster parties are running and there are two credible options to the left of Labour – the Greens and TUSC. To the right there’s UKIP, whose vote will be boosted by the coincidence of the poll with the European elections and endless BBC coverage of Nigel Farage. Plus Kamran Malik is beaming down from the Planet Zarg for another go.

There is also a sense that people are just getting a bit tired of Sir Robin: he’s been around a very long time.

While it would be nice to think that Jane Lithgow or Lois Austin will be the main beneficiaries of the ‘anyone-but-Robin’ mood, it’s the Tories who are most likely to challenge.

They have picked a local candidate and are actually making an effort – for the first time I can remember they’ve had people out knocking on doors, actively canvassing. They’ve also made a big play for Muslim votes by selecting former Respect candidates in key wards and making some specific promises. They’ve pledged to grant free parking near mosques for Friday prayers, support plans for a Muslim cemetery and to ‘take account of religious beliefs when considering planning applications.’ They have picked up where George Galloway left off in trying to exploit resentment at the council’s stance over the so-called mega-mosque.

So what does this mean for Thursday’s vote? Will we wake up on Friday to find Stefan Mrozinski’s face staring out from the front page of the council website, alongside an invitation to ‘Meet the Mayor’?

I think not.

Whatever the appeal of a fresh face may be, Labour is too deeply entrenched locally and the Tories too toxic nationally for there to be a real upset. But Sir Robin will suffer some damage. His total vote will inevitably decline as turnout drops. Disgruntled Labour voters will peel off to the left and the European elections will encourage some voters into the UKIP camp locally too.

It is likely that Labour’s share of mayoral first preferences will be below 50% – just as it did in 2006 when Respect ran strongly. That year they did well enough to win 6 seats on the council.

Will the Tories replicate that success? It will be fascinating to see what happens within Newham Labour if it does. Never in the history of the borough has an official Conservative candidate been elected. That it should happen on Sir Robin’s watch would be richly ironic. After Labour handed him re-nomination with barely a whisper of dissent it would surely prompt some very difficult questions.