Archive | May, 2021

How Newham voted (part 2)

26 May

A bit more on how Newham voted in the London mayoral election.

Turnout

Overall turnout was 38.6%, which is more or less par for local elections in the borough. The best turnout was among the 31,377 postal voters; 20,519 sent back their ballot (65.4%).

Highest on-the-day turnout was in Green Street East, with 41.2%. And the lowest was Beckon, where barely more than a quarter of voters (25.7%) took the trouble to cast a ballot.

First preferences

Labour took 50% or more of the vote in 11 out of 20 wards: Boleyn, East Ham Central, East Ham North, Forest Gate South, both Green Street wards, Little Ilford, Manor Park, Plaistow North, Stratford and Wall End. My own ward, Forest Gate North, fractionally missed the cut; Sadiq Khan scored 49.98% of first preferences

The Tories’ best result was in Custom House, where they actually “won” – 38.6% to 36.3%. They got 30% or more in five other wards: Beckton, both Canning Towns, East Ham South and Plaistow South.

The Greens best results were in Forest Gate North and Stratford & New Town wards, where they got 10.5%. They got 8.3% in Royal Docks.

Young YouTuber Niko Omilana came fourth across Newham with 4.2% of the vote. He scored especially well (6% or more) in East Ham North and the two Green Street wards.

The Liberal Democrats will probably be disappointed, coming fifth on first preferences with just 2.5%. They failed to hit 5% anywhere, including among postal voters. And, similar to the Greens, their best results were in Stratford & New Town and Royal Docks, where they got 4.6%. 

Second preferences

One explanation advanced for Sadiq Khan’s relatively poor showing, at least compared to the wider Labour vote, is that he was running against 19 opponents and the supplementary vote system allowed electors the option to register a protest vote or to vote for their genuinely preferred candidate, confident that their second preference would end up keeping the Tories out. And the data does support that, to some extent. 

Khan took 17,329 second preferences (25.4%), comfortably ahead of Sian Berry of the Greens (10,635, 15.6%) and Shaun Bailey (9,470, 13.9%). No-one else got above 8%.

11,972 voters gave no second preference.

Rejected votes

One of the more disappointing outcomes of this election was the high number of rejected votes, the vast majority of which were ‘over votes’ (voting for too many candidates) caused by really bad design of the ballot paper, There’s a great piece on this on the On London website.

Of the 87,189 votes cast in Newham a massive 5,533 were rejected because voters were confused by the ballot paper. 

Green Street East saw 11.5% of votes rejected for over-voting; Wall End and East Ham Central also had 10% or more of their votes discounted for the same reason. This is an absolute scandal.

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London Elects – how Newham voted

24 May

The London Elects website has released results from the recent mayoral and London Assembly at ward level, which means we can see how Newham voted.

Mayor of London

Candidate Party Votes Percent
Sadiq KHAN Labour Party 39,732 49.4%
Shaun BAILEY Conservative Party 21,327 26.5%
Sian BERRY Green Party 4,455 5.5%
Niko OMILANA Independent 3,374 4.2%
Luisa PORRITT Liberal Democrats 2,043 2.5%
Brian ROSE London Real Party 1,752 2.2%
Richard HEWISON Rejoin EU 1,099 1.4%
Piers CORBYN Let London Live 1,037 1.3%
Laurence FOX The Reclaim Party 892 1.1%
Count BINFACE Count Binface for Mayor of London 634 0.8%
Farah LONDON Independent 632 0.8%
Vanessa HUDSON Animal Welfare Party 585 0.7%
Mandu REID Women’s Equality Party 485 0.6%
Peter GAMMONS UKIP 473 0.6%
Nims OBUNGE Independent 396 0.5%
Kam BALAYEV Renew 383 0.5%
Steve KELLEHER Social Democratic Party 325 0.4%
David KURTEN Heritage Party 292 0.4%
Max FOSH Independent 231 0.3%
Valerie BROWN The Burning Pink Party 226 0.3%

 

London Assembly – City & East

Candidate Party Votes Percent
Unmesh DESAI Labour Party 51,329 60.1%
Nick Vandyke Conservative Party 17,219 20.2%
Tim Kiely Green Party 8,666 10.1%
Richard Flowers Liberal Democrats 4,810 5.6%
David Bull Reform UK 3,417 4.0%

 

London Assembly – list

Party Votes Percent
Labour Party 47,142 55.8%
Conservatives 16,859 20.0%
Green Party 6,421 7.6%
Liberal Democrats 2,967 3.5%
Rejoin EU 1,927 2.3%
Christian Peoples Alliance 1,480 1.8%
Animal Welfare Party – People, Animals, Environment 1,361 1.6%
Vote Women’s Equality Party on orange 1,180 1.4%
London Real Party 1,018 1.2%
ReformUK – London Deserves Better 826 1.0%
Let London Live 750 0.9%
UKIP 723 0.9%
Communist Party of Britain 405 0.5%
Heritage Party – Free Speech and Liberty 347 0.4%
Trade Union and Socialist Coalition 327 0.4%
Social Democratic Party 293 0.3%
Londependence 274 0.3%
National Liberal Party – Self determination for all! 178 0.2%

 

There are three things that jump out from these results.

Firstly, that Sadiq Khan substantially under-performed compared to his party on both the London-wide list and City & East ballot. Unmesh Desai has the advantage of being local, but that alone doesn’t explain an almost 12,000 vote gap. The answer is the hugely unpopular Silvertown Tunnel. Khan took the decision to go ahead and build it and it has cost him. I know many local Labour activists who sat on their hands rather than knock doors or deliver leaflets for him. Some may not even have voted him (voting for another party is an expulsion-level offence in the party rulebook, so they likely stayed at home or filed a blank ballot).

Second, that the Conservatives over-performed compared to their usual Newham vote share, taking 20% in both Assembly elections and 26% in the mayoral contest. They took 12% against Rokhsana Fiaz in 2018 and around 15% across the two local seats in the 2019 general election. 

Thirdly, the Green Party is clearly the third party in Newham, getting double the votes of the Liberal Democrats.

I’ll post something on voting in each of the 20 local wards later in the week.

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Labour holds East Ham Central

13 May

Farah Nazeer election leaflets

Labour easily held its seat in the East Ham Central by-election, with Farah Nazeer returning to the council after an absence of three years. Cllr Nazeer previously represented Little Ilford ward from 2010 to 2018.

The results:

Farah Nazeer – Labour & Co-op – 2,297 (53%)

SK Zakir Hossain – Conservative – 1,288 (30%)

Danny Keeling – Greens – 283 (7%)

Ed Comaromi –  Lib Dems – 239 (6%)

Paul M Jobson – Christian PA – 115 (3%)

Lois Austin – TUSC – 91 (2%)

Turnout: 42.6%

Although Labour’s vote was somewhat down from the 2018 election – despite a higher overall turnout and a wider choice of candidates on the ballot – the party still garnered more than 50% of the vote.

The Conservatives did very well, growing their vote from 509 to 1,288 – a whopping 150% increase. Perhaps the ‘yellow’ referendum campaign helped drive this? Their leaflets, which were distributed across large parts of East Ham, pushed policies on cars and parking charges which were indistinguishable from Shaun Bailey’s. And the local Tory candidate said he would suspend the MiPermit parking scheme. By playing to the grievances of a minority that feels it is not being listened to in the town hall, the ‘yellows’ may have pushed voters towards the party that shared the same outlook.

Neither the Greens nor Lib Dems stood in 2018 and both will probably be quite pleased with their results. The 13% they took between them might well have gone to Labour last time in the absence of any other progressive alternative. Results elsewhere last week will encourage both parties to think they have chances in 2022.

Bringing up the rear, TUSC and the Christians did about as poorly as expected.

East Ham Central is largely unaffected by the boundary changes that will be introduced next year, so Cllr Nazeer will likely be defending the same territory although the name will be a little shorter – just East Ham.

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Governance Referendum result and statement

10 May

RESULT OF THE REFERENDUM

For the directly elect mayor: 45,960 (56%)

For the committee system: 36,424 (44%)

CAMPAIGN STATEMENT

Newham Voting for Change is disappointed with the outcome of the governance referendum but the fact that 44% voted for the committee system shows that there is significant support for a more cooperative and collaborative politics.

Our campaign focused on democracy and inclusion and we must accept that the people of Newham have spoken. After twenty years of a directly elected mayor, they have opted to stick with that system for at least the next decade.

We would like to thank everyone involved in our campaign for their hard work over the past few months and congratulate those in the pro-mayoral ‘Right to Vote’ campaign for their part in helping residents understand the important issues at stake.

Newham Voting for Change also pays tribute to Mayor Rokhsana Fiaz for keeping her promise to hold a referendum and for ensuring that voters had a real choice on the ballot paper.

Chair of Newham Voting for Change, Josephine Grahl said, “although it is disappointing that we did not win it is encouraging to see local people engaging in the debate about how their council is run. While the directly elected mayor system will continue, we are encouraged by commitments made to wider participation through citizens’ assemblies and the proposed trialling of small-scale community councils where some powers are devolved to local areas. We hope the mayor recognises that Newham voters are enthusiastic about more open and transparent decision-making at all levels within the council.”

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