London Elects – how Newham voted

7 Responses to “London Elects – how Newham voted”

1. 

   Kronikal May 24, 2021 at 14:22 #

   You point out, because of Sadiq’s support for the Silvertown Tunnel, some Labour activists “may not even have voted him (voting for another party is an expulsion-level offence in the party rulebook, so they likely stayed at home or filed a blank ballot).” –

   That’s amusing in that: it’s only *in practice* an expulsion-level offence *if you admit to doing it!* 😂
   Surely, few would be that stupid? (Surely?) Even if they told a ‘friend’, who mentioned it to a party official, the person could simply deny it, say it was a joke, etc.

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2. 

   Kronikal May 24, 2021 at 15:31 #

   I’m not sure to what extent Sadiq’s depressed vote (compared with Labour on the other ballot papers) is *all* down to his support for the Silvertown Tunnel, but granted it will be important to at least those near to where the tunnel mouth would come out (Canning Town/West Silvertown). I doubt that as many Labour *voters* in Little Ilford (the opposite corner of the borough) will have rated it as that significant for them, or be aware of his stance on it.

   There were 20 candidates for mayor, but only 5 for the constituency, so fans of an obscure party would not have been able to indulge this on the latter ballot paper, ‘forcing’ them to vote for one who was. Also, the mayoral election facilitates a choice for an obscure candidate anyway, by allowing a second choice, and I assume the statistics quoted are for first choice only.

   But it should be possible to test the Silvertown Tunnel effect, by comparing the ward-level data (southwest to northeast) against that of the other strands of the election. I’m hoping someone will do this!

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     Martin Warne May 24, 2021 at 15:59 #

     Khan’s lowest vote shares were in the wards closest to where the new tunnel will emerge: Beckton, Custom House and the two Canning Towns. He did much better further away from it – Wall End, Little Ilford, Manor Park, Green Street, Forest Gate South, Stratford.

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       Tim Roll-Pickering May 25, 2021 at 13:05 #

       Khan’s lowest vote shares in 2016 were also in the south of the borough. He lost % in every ward but two of the three lowest losses were in Royal Docks and Canning Town South (the other was in Stratford & New Town). His biggest drops were in the north east of the borough with the biggest drop of all at 23.4% in Little Ilford.
     • 

       Kronikal May 28, 2021 at 12:06 #

       Yes, of course, it’s the swing that counts. But that implies, Tim, that the votes were swayed by motorists in SW of borough looking forward to being able to get south of the river more quickly! 🤦‍♂️
       Do you have swings for Greenwich side?
       I suppose at Blackwall/Poplar they’ll welcome some relief too, making it a possible net vote-winner for Sadiq 🙄.
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       Tim Roll-Pickering May 29, 2021 at 10:54 #

       I don’t have the Greenwich % changes to hand but most of the borough swung to the Conservatives in the on the day figures (allocating postal votes can shift things slightly). However the three exceptions were in the north west of the borough with Greenwich West and Blackheath Westcombe showing a mild swing to Khan (seen also in Blackheath ward on Lewisham which completes the heath itself) and a small swing in Peninsula where the tunnel will come out.

       Peninsula has seen a lot of development in the last five years which makes swing comparisons tricky.

       The figures I have for Tower Hamlets include a notional allocation of postal votes. Four wards swung to Khan including Blackwall & Cubitt Town at 1.1% (the other three were Island Gardens, Limehouse and St Katharine’s & Wapping) but Poplar ward (where the current tunnel comes out) had an 18% swing to Bailey, the third highest in the borough.
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       Kronikal May 30, 2021 at 17:59 #

       Thanks for that, Tim!