On the eve of the Newham North East by-election – 20 years ago today – Alec Kellaway, the sole opposition councillor and Liberal Democrat candidate, defected to Labour.
His friends and supporters who had campaigned tirelessly for him for weeks were devastated. It was, they said, a bitter blow.
So congratulations to Councillor Alec Kellaway on 20 years as a member of Newham Labour party. I’m sure the champagne is on ice at Building 1000.
Newham’s electorate and turnout at borough-wide elections since 1964 (source: LBN)
| Year | Electorate | Turnout |
|---|---|---|
| 1964 | 179,870 | 29.4% |
| 1968 | 177,134 | 25.1% |
| 1971 | 183,134 | 29.4% |
| 1974 | 176,445 | 22.5% |
| 1978 | 176,760 | 31.1% |
| 1982 | 163,758 | 31.4% |
| 1986 | 160,536 | 34.9% |
| 1990 | 157,951 | 36.5% |
| 1994 | 151,895 | 37.6% |
| 1998 | 139,273 | 28.4% |
| 2002 | 157,505 | 25.5% |
| 2006 | 187,702 | 34.5% |
| 2010 | 195,058 | 52.74% |
| 2014 | 195,419 | 40.6% |
A few random observations:
Firstly, citizen engagement with local politics remains appalling low. Only once in the history of the borough has turnout exceeded 50% and that was driven by the general election being held on the same day. Even the lure (ahem) of the European elections wasn’t sufficient to get 60% of voters to bother.
Why don’t more people make the effort? This isn’t just a Newham problem. Across London turnout for local elections hovered around the 40% mark. Despite having come a long way from the low point of 22.5% turnout in 1974 there’s a looming crisis of democratic legitimacy.
The lazy answer is that we just need to make voting easier. But it’s already ridiculously easy: polling stations are within walking distance and open for 15 hours; postal votes are available on demand. It has to be about making local politics relevant and engaging people in conversations about things that are important to them and their communities; it has to be about making people feel their vote will count; and it has to be about making local politics more than just getting the vote out once every four years.
Secondly, take a look at the size of the electorate in 2010 and 2014. Thousands of new homes are being built in the borough and there’s been a significant increase in over-crowding. We know the local population is rising rapidly, yet the number of registered voters has grown by less than 400.
Does that strike you as odd?
Then there’s the difference between the size of electorate for local elections and for the European election.
According the results published by Newham, turnout for the Euros was 43.6% based on an electorate of 173,606. That’s almost 22,000 less than for the local election.
People entitled to vote in local government elections are all also entitled to vote in European elections – British citizens, Irish citizens, Commonwealth citizens and EU citizens living in the UK. So where did all those voters go? Were people who wanted to vote in the European election turned away?
Newham council would look very different under PR
Last week the Hackney Citizen reported that in their borough the Greens would have won seven seats under a proportional voting system, whereas they actually got none – despite getting more than 20% of the vote. In total PR would have delivered twelve opposition councillors, rather than the seven actually elected (four Tories, three LibDems).
Things in Newham are even worse.
For the second election running, not a single opposition councillor was elected, despite one-third of voters choosing candidates from parties other than Labour. According to the council’s own results webpage, the Conservatives got 24% of the vote.
Using exactly the same analysis as the Hackney Citizen – applying the proportional representation system used in the European elections to the Newham results – the Tories would have won twelve seats, making them the largest opposition group. And, despite standing in only a handful of wards, UKIP would have two councillors.
Labour would have won all three seats in six of the 20 wards – Boleyn, Canning Town North, Forest Gate North, Little Ilford, Stratford & New Town, and West Ham – and two in all the rest. UKIP would have taken a seat in Canning Town South and in Custom House, with the Tories taking a seat in each of the 12 remaining wards.
How did I work this out?
The system used in the European election relies on voters selecting a single party, rather than vote for individual candidates as they do in ‘first past the post’ elections. To get around this I averaged the votes for the candidates for each party. I did this in every ward. From this I could then apply the D’Hondt method to calculate the results.
Taking Forest Gate South as an example, this is the actual result:
| Candidate | Party | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Masihullah Patel | Labour | 2209 | Elected |
| Dianne Walls | Labour | 2095 | Elected |
| Winston Vaughan | Labour | 2023 | Elected |
| Mahboob Rizu Ahmed | Conservative | 993 | |
| Asif Choudhary | Conservative | 976 | |
| Tim Roll-Pickering | Conservative | 693 | |
| William Heron | Liberal Democrat | 293 | |
| Niall Mulholland | TUSC | 238 | |
| Dieutane Jean Parson | Christian Peoples Alliance | 179 | |
| Malcolm Williamson | Christian Peoples Alliance | 159 | |
| Ionel Vrancianu | Independent | 101 |
This gives an average party vote of:
| Party | Votes |
|---|---|
| Labour | 2109 |
| Conservative | 887 |
| Liberal Democrats | 293 |
| TUSC | 238 |
| CPA | 169 |
| Independent | 101 |
Since Labour has the most votes they win the first of the three seats available.
For the second seat the votes for each party are divided by the number of seats they have won, plus 1. So Labour’s vote is divided by two and the other parties are divided by one (so they stay the same), which gives us:
| Party | Votes |
|---|---|
| Labour | 1055 |
| Conservative | 887 |
| Liberal Democrats | 293 |
| TUSC | 238 |
| CPA | 169 |
| Independent | 101 |
Labour still has the most votes and wins the second seat.
For the third and final seat the votes for each party are again divided by the number of seats they have won, plus 1. So now we divide the original Labour vote by three, as it has already won two seats, and the other parties stay the same:
| Party | Votes |
|---|---|
| Labour | 703 |
| Conservative | 887 |
| Liberal Democrats | 293 |
| TUSC | 238 |
| CPA | 169 |
| Independent | 101 |
In this round the Conservatives have the most votes, so they win the last seat. Forest Gate South has two Labour and one Conservative councillor.
A note of caution
These are only approximations since there’s no way of calculating with absolute certainty the result under proportional representation because of the differences between this system and first past the post. There’s also no way of knowing if changing the voting system changes people’s voting behaviour. Or if a different voting system would encourage more parties to stand candidates in more seats.
But it does provide a reasonable basis – using real results and a system actually used in the UK – to argue that our current voting system for local government is broken. It delivers an unfair result and a council that does not truly reflect the diverse political opinions of the community it is meant to serve.
A map showing where the 60 Newham councillors (red) and the mayor (blue) live.
There’s a notable clustering in the north of the borough, with less than a third of them living south of Barking Road.
I got back from holiday last night to find this waiting on my doormat. I gather a number of my neighbours have also received copies.
I’ve no idea who’s behind this, or the similar one that appeared just before the election, but they have quite an imagination!
In 2010 Labour not only won all 60 seats but had the top 60 candidates ranked by personal vote: no losing candidate in one ward got more votes than a winning candidate in another. That’s not the case this time. The 60 most popular candidates includes 3 Tories – Ilyas Sharif (East Ham North), Ashfaq Ahmed (Green St East) and Durai Kannan (East Ham North). In fact 7 unsuccessful Conservatives polled more votes than Anthony McAlmont, Labour’s lowest ranking candidate.
Ultimately this is meaningless, as the election is fought across 20 wards with varying electorates and turnouts. But it does point to the underlying absurdity of our current electoral system.
Forest Gate North’s new councillors
Forest Gate North
| Candidate | Party | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ellie Robinson | Labour | 2324 | Elected |
| Seyi Akiwowo | Labour | 2126 | Elected |
| Rachel Tripp | Labour | 2120 | Elected |
| Alan Charles Cooper | Green | 562 | |
| Jane Alison Lithgow | Green | 559 | |
| Shaeb Khan | Conservative | 548 | |
| Dawn Lennon | Conservative | 490 | |
| Brian Maze | Conservative | 480 | |
| Bob Severn | TUSC | 222 | |
| Christian Moon | Liberal Democrat | 206 | |
| Lynn Denise Donaldson | Christian Peoples Alliance | 174 | |
| Christina Doyle | Christian Peoples Alliance | 146 |
Forest Gate South
| Candidate | Party | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Masihullah Patel | Labour | 2209 | Elected |
| Dianne Walls | Labour | 2095 | Elected |
| Winston Vaughan | Labour | 2023 | Elected |
| Mahboob Rizu Ahmed | Conservative | 993 | |
| Asif Choudhary | Conservative | 976 | |
| Tim Roll-Pickering | Conservative | 693 | |
| William Heron | Liberal Democrat | 293 | |
| Niall Mulholland | TUSC | 238 | |
| Dieutane Jean Parson | Christian Peoples Alliance | 179 | |
| Malcolm Williamson | Christian Peoples Alliance | 159 | |
| Ionel Vrancianu | Independent | 101 |
Newham Labour is celebrating another four years for Sir Robin, despite a big drop in his personal vote compared to 2010.
The Conservatives’ Respect-a-like campaign brought them an extra 2% share, but at considerable cost to their credibility. Tory HQ is said to be investigating their candidate selections and election leaflets.
UKIP’s 3rd place is less alarming than it appears. They were a long, long way back and 6% of the vote is less than their London-wide average. Newham again proves it is blessedly resistant to the far right.
Jane Lithgow of the Greens will be as pleased with her 4% as Lois Austin will be disappointed with TUSC’s 2%.
It looks like the end of the road for the Christian Peoples Alliance. From 4th place to last and two-thirds of their vote vanished. They won’t be missed.
Talking of losers: the Liberal Democrats. Once upon a time they got people elected to the council; now they trail in 6th place with fewer votes than Kamran Malik.
| Candidate | Party | 2014 | 2010 | Change | |||
| Sir Robin Wales | Labour | 47,095 | 61.2% | 64,748 | 68.0% | -17,653 | -6.8% |
| Stefan Mrozinski | Conservative | 13,976 | 18.2% | 15,330 | 16.1% | -1,354 | 2.1% |
| David Mears | UKIP | 4,960 | 6.4% | ||||
| Jane Lithgow | Green | 3,055 | 4.0% | ||||
| Kamran Malik | Communities United | 2,796 | 3.6% | 6,607 | 6.9% | -3,811 | -3.3% |
| David Thorpe | Liberal Democrat | 1,757 | 2.3% | ||||
| Lois Austin | TUSC | 1,708 | 2.2% | ||||
| Alex Ocan Latim | Christian PA | 1,625 | 2.1% | 6,503 | 6.8% | -4,878 | -4.7% |
| Turnout | 76,972 | 40.60% | 95,194 | 50.40% | -18,222 | -9.8% | |
Defenestrated Labour councillor Kevin Jenkins provides some acid-tongued advice to residents unsure of who to vote for tomorrow. He suggests asking four questions about each of the candidates:
That doesn’t read to me like a clarion call to vote for his former colleagues.
Every year, in November, we are encouraged to remember the sacrifice made by those who fought and died to defend our freedom and our democracy.
This year there’s no need to wait until November.
There are three elections happening in Newham on Thursday and you have the right to vote in all of them. Going to the polling station and marking an X on a ballot is by far a more meaningful commemoration than wearing a poppy.
Please vote.
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