forestgatedotnet

An unofficial anti-Wales leaflet currently doing the rounds

Back in 2010 the electoral fates conspired to help Sir Robin Wales to a landslide victory in the mayoral election.

The election was held on the same day as the general election, boosting turnout to over 50%, and he was to all intents and purposes unopposed. The Tories barely campaigned at all, there was no Liberal Democrat and no Left candidate. The field was so pathetically thin that Kamran Malik came third.

The full results were:

This time though Sir Robin faces a tougher test: all the main Westminster parties are running and there are two credible options to the left of Labour – the Greens and TUSC. To the right there’s UKIP, whose vote will be boosted by the coincidence of the poll with the European elections and endless BBC coverage of Nigel Farage. Plus Kamran Malik is beaming down from the Planet Zarg for another go.

There is also a sense that people are just getting a bit tired of Sir Robin: he’s been around a very long time.

While it would be nice to think that Jane Lithgow or Lois Austin will be the main beneficiaries of the ‘anyone-but-Robin’ mood, it’s the Tories who are most likely to challenge.

They have picked a local candidate and are actually making an effort – for the first time I can remember they’ve had people out knocking on doors, actively canvassing. They’ve also made a big play for Muslim votes by selecting former Respect candidates in key wards and making some specific promises. They’ve pledged to grant free parking near mosques for Friday prayers, support plans for a Muslim cemetery and to ‘take account of religious beliefs when considering planning applications.’ They have picked up where George Galloway left off in trying to exploit resentment at the council’s stance over the so-called mega-mosque.

So what does this mean for Thursday’s vote? Will we wake up on Friday to find Stefan Mrozinski’s face staring out from the front page of the council website, alongside an invitation to ‘Meet the Mayor’?

I think not.

Whatever the appeal of a fresh face may be, Labour is too deeply entrenched locally and the Tories too toxic nationally for there to be a real upset. But Sir Robin will suffer some damage. His total vote will inevitably decline as turnout drops. Disgruntled Labour voters will peel off to the left and the European elections will encourage some voters into the UKIP camp locally too.

It is likely that Labour’s share of mayoral first preferences will be below 50% – just as it did in 2006 when Respect ran strongly. That year they did well enough to win 6 seats on the council.

Will the Tories replicate that success? It will be fascinating to see what happens within Newham Labour if it does. Never in the history of the borough has an official Conservative candidate been elected. That it should happen on Sir Robin’s watch would be richly ironic. After Labour handed him re-nomination with barely a whisper of dissent it would surely prompt some very difficult questions.

Tags: elections, newham

Does Labour’s empty chair at the Newham hustings remind you of anything?

“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”
– George Santayana

Tags: elections, newham

A few images and a brief report from last night’s hustings at Brittania Village Hall.  You can read the live coverage of the event on Twitter.

Labour’s only representative at the hustings was an empty chair.

Chair John Stewart of HACAN East introduces the speakers – Lois Austin (TUSC), Caroline Allen (Green) and Stefen Mrozinski (Conservative). Out of shot next to Lois is Alex Ocan Latim of the Christian Peoples Alliance. Jonathan Fryer of the Liberal Democrats arrived late. The UKIP candidate for Mayor, David Mears, was unable to attend for personal reasons.

TUSC’s Lois Austin says her party is the true inheritor of the East End’s Labour tradition; they are an alternative to the cuts and austerity policies that unite the established parties. On transport she calls for more investment in public transport, lower fares and the re-nationalisation of the trains and buses. She promises to be a workers’ mayor on a workers’ wage and accuses Newham Labour of turning its back on the poor, failing them on housing and local services. As there’s no Labour representative on the panel her charges go unanswered.

Caroline Allen of the Green Party, number two on their London list for the European parliament, makes the case for a social Europe and a London that works for people, not just big business. Inequality is a massive issue for her party. She calls for rent controls and investment in cycling and walking, rather than building ever more roads, bridges and tunnels. There are huge public health benefits to be had, she says.

Tory mayoral candidate Stefan Mrorzinski rejects expansion of City Airport and says the social costs – pollution and the impact on local businesses – are too high. He attacks Robin Wales’s record after 20 years in power: poor school results, no improvement in poverty, high crime levels and anti-social behaviour. There has been a huge waste of public money on the Newham Mag, Building 1000, London Pleasure Gardens etc. He says he opposes Boris Johnson on building more & more tower blocks & ‘buy to leave’ investment properties: “we need to build streets, not tower blocks.” He says the mayoral system has failed here as Labour’s 60 councillors are failing to hold Sir Robin to account: Newham needs an opposition.

Alex Ocan Latim of the Christian Peoples Alliance wants to refurbish empty local houses and build new low cost homes for low earning families. Newham owns land, so it should build low cost housing on it. It seems even the Christians are to the left of Labour in Newham! Alex is also deeply concerned about creating local jobs and opportunities for young people.

For the Liberal Democrats, European candidate Jonathan Fryer is forced to defend his party’s record in in the coalition government after attacks from TUSC and the Greens. He agrees on the need for more affordable public transport and improved rail use as an alternative to airport expansion. Oddly, he doesn’t mention the white elephant of Stratford International, but when it is raised he – and everyone else – agrees it is vital to get international services started as quickly as possible. As a European rather than local candidate he makes his pitch for a positive vision for the EU. “Don’t be sucked in by that funny Mr Farage. Vote for progress,” he says.

It was an entertaining evening and the debate was good-natured. There were no clear winners among the parties that attended, but one very obvious loser. And you don’t need me to tell you who that was – just look for the empty seat.

Tags: elections, newham